Unknown knowns

  • by Graham Bond
  • 12 May, 2017

Individual investors may face many “known unknowns”—that is to say, things that they know they don’t know. The UK’s referendum on EU membership is one of them, confronting people with a large degree of uncertainty.

But it’s not necessary to “make the right call” on the referendum or its consequences to be a successful investor. Our approach is to trust the market to price securities fairly; to take account of broad expectations of future returns.

In arguing for the status quo, the “remain” campaign is able to point out familiar characteristics of membership.

The “out” campaign, however, is based on intangibles that can only be resolved after the result of the referendum is known. It is impossible for any individual to predict the implications of these unknowns with certainty.

But this is no cause for concern. While the referendum is imminent and its implications are potentially vast and unpredictable, it is not necessary for individual investors to make any judgement calls on the outcome. We have faced many uncertainties in the past—general elections, market crises, recessions, wars—and throughout all of them, the market has done its job of aggregating participants’ views about expected returns and priced assets accordingly.

And while these events have caused uncertainty, volatility and short-term losses and gains, none of them has altered the expectation that stocks provide a good long-term return in real terms.

We have a global view of investing, and we know that the market is very good at processing information that is relevant to future returns. Because of this view, we don’t attempt to second-guess the market. We manage well-diversified portfolios that do not rely on the outcome of individual events or decisions to target the expected long-term return.

*The chart illustrates the long-term positive performance of world markets (1970–2015), through wars, crises and slumps. These events are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. In GBP.

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by Graham Bond 05 Jul, 2017

Time and time again forecaster try to predict what will happen in the future to Stock Markets. In reality, nobody knows what Markets will do next.

The Wall Street Journal in the US recently published an article about the performance of Global Stocks and Shares. The article was called, “ Global Stocks Post Strongest First Half in Years, Worrying Investors .”

“The question for stocks and shares investors is whether the strong first six months of 2017 heralds a choppier second half or the start of a multiyear upswing. The data on global rallies offers a mixed record.”

In plain English, this means:

 “It’s impossible to predict whether markets will go up or down for the latter half of the year. Markets could go up or down or even trade sideways.”

The newspaper article also reported that: “Most of the major stock Market Indexes, 26 in total have risen in value so far in 2017. The last time this happened was in 2009.

by Graham Bond 29 Jun, 2017
Here's an update on Personal Finance Portal. From the 4th July our client portal will have a new look and feel about it. 
The software provider we work in conjuction with have revised the format to make it easier to use for our financial planning clients.

The Personal Finance Portal is a quick and secure way to obtain up to date valuations on your pensions and investments. It also offers you a way to communicate safely with us as the service is encrypted. The same cannot be said about email, which is not secure. 

The aim is to make the navigation easier to use and to provide more information to you on your finances. 

The video below shows some of the improvements that will be made. We hope you find it useful and informative. 

To access our portal please click this link

If you would like to find out more about the Personal Finance Portal please feel free to contact  us on 01454 321511. Consilium Asset Management offer Independent Financial Advice to private and business owners in the Bristol area. 
by Graham Bond 21 Jun, 2017

Over the month weeks and months, we are looking to improve the personal finance portal (PFP) for our clients. The first stage is to introduce a live chat, audio and video service whilst clients are logged into PFP. This is the first level of improvements we will be making over the coming months. The live chat service is safe and secure.

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