It's in the price

  • by Graham Bond
  • 25 Apr, 2017

When we talk about the way we invest you might hear us saying we believe prices are fair; that we believe in the power of markets; or that we believe there is information in stock market prices. These are different ways of saying largely the same thing—that we believe the market does a good job of incorporating information into prices.

For example, when a company reports its quarterly results to the market, there is often a near-instantaneous change in price as the market reassesses how the new information changes the company’s future earning capability.

To understand more deeply what is going on in the stock market we can think of how another market, the market for bets on English Premier League, operated this season.

You will undoubtedly have heard that Leicester City won the league, a remarkable feat considering they were close to relegation last season and started this season with some bookmakers offering odds of 5000-1 on them becoming champions. Bookmakers considered the event as likely as finding Elvis alive, with an implied probability of 0.02% (zero). One cheeky bookmaker scrawled “pigs might fly” on an optimistic punter’s betting slip.

As the season progressed, however, bookmakers quickly revised their odds every time new price-sensitive information came to light. That new information reflected not only Leicester’s (sometimes unlikely) results but also the results of their title challengers, which of course had significant effect on Leicester’s chances. By Christmas, the odds had fallen to 10-1 and by mid-March they were 10/11 odds-on favourites.

Stock Market prices are forward-looking in the same way betting odds are an expression of the likelihood of a future event occurring. Throughout the season, bookmakers were pricing and repricing their expectation of Leicester lifting the trophy in the same way a market does when it collectively arrives at a security’s price. Company results, competitor’s results and a seemingly infinite number of other outside influences combine to set expectations of future security returns.

Our investment approach harnesses this collective knowledge and enables us to build investment portfolios that put the power of the market to work for you.

Click this link for more information on  market efficiency and stock prices

Recent Posts

by Graham Bond 25 May, 2017

Personal Finance Portal (PFP) has evolved and can now give you access to your entire financial portfolio including all short, medium and long-term savings and investment information in one place 24/7 – anywhere, on any mobile or web device. It features redesigned screens and layouts which makes it much easier for you to use. There’s even a dedicated mobile phone app for iPhone and Android users coming soon.

As well as the great functionality you currently enjoy with PFP, you can also now get:

Additional access to PFP Premium

PFP Premium is an additional service that enables you to collate information on your short-term finances like bank account(s), credit cards, loans and mortgages together your advised products, giving you powerful insight into your total net worth. Plus, you’ll also be able to receive alerts and insights into spending and saving habits so you can keep track on how you’re progressing against the goals you’ve set. Why not give it a try?

Of course you can still view your fund information and financial portfolio at the click of a button. So whether you’re looking for an up-to-date valuation of your portfolio, want to assess how you’re progressing against your goals or simply wish to get in touch, PFP has it covered.

Secure messaging between us and you

With email and post increasingly open to being intercepted, we treat the security of the data you share with us with utmost importance. PFP provides you with a secure messaging service, so you can quickly get in touch with us and have the peace of mind of knowing that any information you share is encrypted and completely private.

A secure document vault

PFP provides you with a secure document vault, so you can house all your financial documents online where they are secure and fully backed up - much safer and more convenient than the bottom of the filing cabinet.

The new service will offer improved screens This upgrade will provide improved features for our clients. The link below give an overview of the new PFP

If you are not already using the PFP facility and would like to please contact us.

by Graham Bond 25 May, 2017

Capital Gains tax on shares and investments. When you sell shares, you will either make a profit or a loss. Profits made are classed as a capital gain.

There are some exemptions where capital gains tax (CGT) is not liable:

  • Individual savings accounts (Isa’s)
  • Venture Capital Trusts
  • Enterprise Investment schemes
  • Gifts to Charity
  • Government Securities
  • Corporate Bonds of a qualifying status
  • Transfers of shares between spouses or partners in a civil partnership
  • betting, lottery or pools winnings

Apart from the exemptions, sales or disposal of the shares will normally be classed as a potential capital gain.

Each person has an allowance each year they can use to reduce the amount of CGT they might pay. If your total gains for the tax year are below the “annual exempt allowance” you will not have to pay any tax.

If your gains are over the allowance then tax would be due on the balance. It might also be possible to offset any losses from previous tax years. If you do not use your annual exempt allowance for CGT in a tax year, then you lose it and you cannot carry it forward to another year. The CGT tax rate payable will depend on your total income and any gains made for the tax year in question.

The government changed the way Capital Gains were taxed from April 2015. The amount of tax due will depend whether you are a basic or higher rate taxpayer.

by Graham Bond 23 May, 2017

If you sell a property, you might have to pay tax. This tax is called capital gains tax. The amount you might have to pay will depend on the amount of profit you make.

If the property you are considering selling is your main residence then you would normally be entitled to “Principle private residence relief”. This relief normally allows you to you to sell your home without incurring capital gains tax (CGT).

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